Determining the final twelve

My guesses are rarely right, but I'll predict that Kevin, Bucky, Melissa, and Kinnik leave tonight.
Bo returns and talks about singing to his son every day. He's going to sing his single, "The Real Thing," which I heard today on XM for the first time. The radio mix is tame and sweet and doesn't actually sound much like Bo, but tonight he's rocking out on the chorus, not altogether tunefully. He never sounded this bad last season, except of course on his tragic assault on "Corner of the Sky."

First we see the eight girls. Lisa is safe, as commanded by Simon. Melissa is safe -- for now. Ayla glares with frightening intensity until she is told she's safe; then she smiles beautifully. Kinnink is told abruptly that she's going home. She carries herself with remarkably dignity, like an exceedingly restrained and elegant drag queen, and then sings in just the way that got her booted off. Do they still have the Star Search spokesmodel competition? Because she'd be a lock for that one.

And now we lose a guy. Kevin is safe but still looks scared. Gedeon closes his eyes, bracing for bad news that doesn't come. Bucky too is safe. Now we know it's not going to be Elliott, right? So surely it's Will . . . and indeed it is. He is just adorable and sweet, and even Simon has to say he likes him. And since I actually liked this performance, I'm perfectly happy to see it again.

We return to the girls. I think Paris was genuinely worried, but she is the first to take her seat in this Titanic-paced version of musical chairs. Katharine follows close behind. Kellie could easily have a heart attack before she gets the unsurprising news. Simon will get to see Mandisa on a bigger stage. The whole sorority sister thing going on over in the Pit of the Twelve is something to behold. They don't even try for suspense with Lisa. So it's either Ayla or Melissa who will go home . . . after the break.

And surprisingly, it's Ayla who goes home. Song choice really makes all the difference, doesn't it? Ayla is understandably tearful. They must be running a bit ahead of schedule, because they're giving this lots of time. Simon, again, is gracious: "It wasn't you, it was the song. You should hold your head up." The poor girl sings wretchedly, but it's a wonder she can hold it together at all.

Now the men. Apparently America hasn't reached its point of complete annoyance with Taylor, and Ace coasts through on cuteness and promise. Chris and Ryan do this adorable new butch hug thing they do when Chris, predictably, gets through. Kevin is visibly shocked to make it through. Whose stupid idea was it to have the Brittenum twins in the audience? Shouldn't they be serving time somewhere? Elliott makes it, leaving us with just Bucky and Gedeon. . . .

Another surprise! It's Gedeon, who speaks creepily but sings pretty darn well (better than Bucky, certainly). Paris looks inconsolable. Gedeon opens his mouth wider than any other human being in recorded history.

I'm not really sure that "Bad Day" is the kindest song to be playing under to the goodbye montage. The closing frame is all about Chris and Ryan. That can't be an accident.